We propose a dating process for the business and growth Euro-zone cycles. This process is a result of a non parametric algorithm and diverse criteria assessment (duration, deepness, diffusion, synchronisation), as well as of “expert judgments” based on a combination of the following principles: a comparison of direct and indirect dating; an objective of coherence between growth cycle and business cycle turning points (ABCD approach); an objective of coherence between industrial and GDP cycles. As a complement to the traditional direct approach based on the study of Euro-zone aggregates, the main contribution of this paper is to measure the degree of diffusion and synchronisation of the cycles among the countries.
|Titolo:||A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone classical and growth cycle|
|Data di pubblicazione:||2007|
|Appare nelle tipologie:||3.1 Articolo su libro|
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|AnasBillioFerraraLoDuca2.pdf||Post-print||Accesso chiuso-personale||Open Access dal 01/12/2035|