The analysis of synchronization among regional or national business cycles has recently been attracting a growing interest within the economic literature. Far less attention has instead been devoted to a closely related issue: given a certain level of synchronization, some economies might be systematically ahead of others along the swings of the business cycle. In other words, there could be a lead/lag structure in which some economies systematically lead or lag behind others. In the present paper we aim at providing a thorough analysis of the lead/lag structure among a system of regional economies. This task is achieved in two steps. First, we show that leading (or lagging behind) is a feature that does not occur at random across the economies. Second, we investigate the economic drivers that could explain such a behavior. To do so, we employ data for 48 conterminous US states between 1979 and 2010.
|Titolo:||Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles|
|Data di pubblicazione:||2011|
|Appare nelle tipologie:||3.1 Articolo su libro|
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|Magrini&al_wp06-2011_REVISED.pdf||Documento in Post-print||Accesso chiuso-personale||Riservato|