Stabilità e conflitto fra India e Cina: cooperazione e sviluppo o una nuova Guerra Fredda?

This article proposes an analysis of the India-China bilateral relations, emphasizing the historical background behind the motivations of the territorial dispute on the border of the eastern Himalayan ridge. After an overview of the events that followed the Shimla Agreement (1914) up to the Sino-Indian War (1962), the recent Chinese claims on a large part of the territory of India (Arunachal Pradesh) and the implications of this friction in the geopolitical context since September 11th 2001 to the present day, are discussed. On the one hand, my analysis shows that bilateral relations, in terms of development cooperation and trade volume between China and India, increased to such an extent in recent decades that it is not possible to imagine a future armed conflict between the two largest economic powers of Asia (let alone in this relative slowdown period due to the global crisis). On the other hand, I will highlight how for the two Asian giants the biggest challenge for the future will be energy supply and the need for a sustainable growth. In this sense, one of the regions of key importance in Asia is the Central Himalaya, due to its strategic location, for its richness of resources and as a water reserve for the continent. The present paper stresses that the issue of Tibet for instance, on which the Indian attitude is perceived as ambiguous by China, has always played a vital role in the so-called cartographic war. The lack of resolution of the political crisis in the scenario of ethnic turmoil of the states of the Indian North-East seems to offer a further pretext for a Chinese pressure on the area. All these factors have contribute to raise this scenario to crucial importance in the geopolitical balance of South Asian quadrant.